Why Fall 2025 Feels Different for Employers — And What You Can Do About It

It’s not just the leaves changing this fall; business and workplace environments are also experiencing change at a faster pace than normal. We know you’re feeling it and uncertainty seems to be the theme of the season.

It’s not all gloomy like our upcoming Oregon weather, but there are some trends worth watching closely. Here are a few that stand out and some suggestions about what you can do.

1. Slower Hiring and Job Growth

Job growth has been losing steam the past few months. September saw the weakest job numbers in quite a while, and when combined with organizations cooling their hiring plans, it is something to pay attention to. 

That doesn’t mean a crash is coming but it does mean employers are tightening up. Some are freezing hiring or delaying new positions, while others are becoming more selective about the roles they fill.

What this means for you:

• If you’re hiring, expect a more cautious labor market. Candidates might be less willing to move, and your competitors may be holding off too.
• If you’re not hiring, now’s the time to focus on retention. When things slow, keeping your best people becomes your best strategy. This is something we saw employers do during the last recession in 2008-2009.  I’m not saying we are headed for a recession, but what we saw is that employers that focused on retaining their best employees and committed to transparency fared better once on the other side.
• If your workload fluctuates, consider flexible staffing or project-based employees so you can scale up or down without overcommitting. For some workers, this flexible work arrangement is highly desirable.

2. Legal Whiplash

One of the most challenging areas is the shifting legal groundwork, particularly at the federal level. New executive orders, proclamations, and agency directives are changing and make it challenging to know what is actually enforceable and what is just aspirational.

What you can do:

• Monitor pending litigation and agency guidance. Watch how federal courts rule on these executive orders (there are currently quite a few challenges) and how federal agencies adapt rules or enforcement. Remember state laws still apply and in Oregon and Washington are often more protective for employees than under federal law. Of course, Cascade will be working hard to keep you updated.
• Document your decision-making. If you change a policy keep rationale, analysis, alternatives considered. If you ever get challenged, having a clear audit trail helps.
• Stay nimble. Build flexibility so you can pivot if enforcement priorities shift.

3. Tariffs and Costs are Rising

The impact of tariffs are starting to hit bottom lines. For example, a 25% tariff on medium and heavy-duty trucks takes effect November 1.  This alone impacts many parts of our supply chain and will be felt down the line.  This is just one upcoming example.  Many organizations are already raising prices or planning to, trying to offset higher costs of business.

What you can do:

• Check your supply chain. If you rely on imported materials or equipment, ask how upcoming tariffs might affect pricing or delivery times.
• Run scenarios. Run a few “what if” scenarios so you know how much flexibility you have before price increases become necessary.
• Be transparent with customers. If costs force you to raise prices, communicate early and clearly. People appreciate transparency more than surprises.

4. Labor Force Shifts Are Quietly Changing the Game

Something that is a bit under the radar is the fact that the number of working age individuals is declining.  This means our U.S. born labor pool is declining.  The Congressional Budget Office projects annual labor growth of .05% over the next 10 years, with immigration accounting for 100% of the population growth.  Yes, immigration.  However, with the current administration’s approach to shrinking immigration this growth appears unlikely.

All of this means, the shortage of workers is here for a while.  This stresses the importance of finding and keeping great people and understanding what they’re looking for in their workplace.  Fun fact: Did you know that Gen Z is projected to make up 30% of the workforce by 2030? 

What to focus on:

• Think creatively about your workforce and environment. Remote work, nontraditional candidates, or internal reskilling can open new doors.
• Don’t take retention for granted. Career growth, flexibility, and purpose still drive engagement, even when the job market cools down a bit.

The Bottom Line

This fall isn’t about panic, it’s about paying attention. The organizations that adapt early and stay transparent with their teams and customers will come out stronger on the other side.